Saturday, September 9, 2017


It appears that Irma is not behaving like the computer spaghetti models are predicting. 

First, Irma was supposed to go along the east coast of Florida, possibly even out to sea a ways. Then, the computer models all shifted to the middle of Florida. And now, they are showing the hurricane going up the west coast of Florida.

I did my own research, and this is what I found:

Here is the latest from the Cuban Institute of Meteorology. This is the official weather agency of Cuba.

"In the next 12 to 24 hours, the intense Hurricane Irma will continue its course toward the west, traveling very close to the north coast of the central region, with the possibility of inclining its trajectory towards the northwest by west in hours of the night, with fluctuations in its speed of translation and intensity, but will remain as an intense hurricane."

"Northwest by west" means out into the Gulf, even possibly missing the Keys. It would appear that the Cuban Gov. weather forecasters are not predicting a turn to the north. The High Pressure, north of Florida, could be causing this, or this may simply be a replay of Isaac's Storm of 1900. In which, the Cuban Gov. weather people warned the US that a huge Hurricane was headed for Texas. The US weather officials mocked at the Cubans. Galveston was totally destroyed and many people died because the US Weather Bureau refused to give any official warning. So, it would be no surprise if the US forecasters ignored the Cubans again.

Curiously, the pattern of Irma parallels that of Isaac long ago. I believe it is entirely possible that Irma will head straight on out into the Gulf, possibly sliding north over several days possibly becoming a monster. Or, the end could be that the jet stream and the northern High Pressure will wear Irma out completely. Or, again, it may all end in another Katrina.

We have a rather famous aged weather man in our part of Texas, Bill Heckey, who suggests that Irma could go anywhere. He refuses to predict a track.